Scenario analysis and quantification
Quantifying the extreme when history says nothing
The losses that matter are the ones that have not happened yet. This course covers building scenario workshops, countering estimation biases, bow-tie as a structuring tool, and presenting an extreme figure to a committee without losing credibility.
Learning objectives
- Build a library of extreme scenarios
- Facilitate expert estimation while limiting biases
- Structure a scenario as a bow-tie
- Present a defensible quantification
Intended audience
- Operational risk
- Modelling
- Risk committees
- Actuarial
Prerequisites
- Loss data collection and key risk indicators
Detailed curriculum
Module 1
Estimating the unestimable
Biases, workshop technique, and the structure that makes a number debatable.
Module 2
Presenting an extreme figure
How a committee receives a tail estimate, and what makes it credible.
Assessment method
Self-check questions throughout the lessons, with no recorded score. Where an associated track leads to a certification, that certification has a separate exam.
Document issued
This course does not, on its own, lead to a certificate. A track certification, where one exists, is issued after its exam is passed.
Continuity & Resilience editorial team